Introduction

Mexico’s buildings sector faces significant energy challenges as it navigates a path toward sustainability. Currently, energy demand in this sector is on a steady upward trajectory due to economic growth and population expansion, with projections indicating a substantial increase by 2050 if no policy interventions are implemented. Residential and commercial/municipal energy demands are expected to continue rising, leading to a heavy reliance on fossil fuels, primarily diesel, biomass, and electricity sourced from a largely conventional grid. This dependence not only contributes to greenhouse gas emissions but also poses challenges for energy security and environmental sustainability.

However, policy interventions aimed at achieving net-zero emissions could dramatically alter this landscape. A pathway towards net zero would require a transformative shift in the energy mix, primarily through full electrification of the buildings sector by 2050. This approach would phase out fossil fuels entirely, with electricity accounting for nearly 100% of energy use, likely supplied by a cleaner, sustainable grid. While this shift indicates progress, the trajectory underscores the importance of policy support to transition from fossil fuels and increase renewable integration. Mexico’s challenge, therefore, lies in accelerating this transition while balancing growth demands, minimizing environmental impact, and ensuring reliable energy supply for a sustainable future.