Introduction

Mexico's socioeconomic development, shaped by urbanization and rural shifts, plays a pivotal role in the country's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions trajectory. The socioeconomic sector is categorized into general and economic subsectors, which guide variables like GDP and population growth that influence emission patterns across urban and rural settings. Cities such as Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara have experienced rapid population growth due to rural-to-urban migration, leading to higher emissions from increased energy demand, transportation, and industrial activity. In contrast, rural areas contribute primarily through agriculture, land use changes, and deforestation, though their per capita emissions remain lower. From 1990 to 2022, urbanization has markedly increased CO₂ emissions, driven by infrastructure expansion and industrialization, with projections indicating further emission growth through 2070 as urban populations rise. While Mexico's climate policy aims for a 35% reduction by 2030, ongoing emissions highlight the urgent need for sustainable strategies across urban and rural sectors.

Mexico's Long-term Strategies (LTS) proposes to achieve a 50% reduction in emissions from 2000 levels by 2050. The strategy aligns various sectors such as land-use planning, urban development, sustainable buildings, energy, transport, waste management, and water policies. One review of this LTS identifies weaknesses, including the lack of a net-zero target and the need for more specific mitigation and adaptation actions (Climate Action Tracker, 2022b). Our analysis complements Mexico's LTS by providing insights on how to combine transformations across the economy to achieve carbon neutrality. While traditional development aligns with the Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario in Mexico's Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), each transformation category contributes toward the 35% emissions reduction target outlined in the NDC. However, no single category can achieve net-zero emissions independently by 2050. If Mexico decided to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, a more comprehensive approach closer to all actions would be needed.