Introduction

Mexico's industrial sector faces substantial challenges as it balances growth with sustainability goals. Current trends show a heavy reliance on fossil fuels, such as natural gas and fuel oil, which together dominate the industrial energy mix and contribute to high emissions. Without significant interventions, energy demand is expected to rise, driven largely by traditional manufacturing and mining sectors, while efficiency gains remain minimal across fuel types. This trajectory suggests sustained carbon intensity and high energy consumption per unit of output, limiting Mexico's potential to align with global decarbonization goals.

Despite these challenges, policy interventions aimed at net-zero emissions could transform Mexico's industrial landscape. Projections indicate that with targeted policies, there could be a substantial shift toward electricity and cleaner fuels, including emerging sources like hydrogen. Efficiency improvements, particularly in electricity, hydrogen, and natural gas, would help decrease energy intensity across sectors. By 2050, these gains could enable Mexico to reduce its carbon footprint significantly, meeting both national and international sustainability targets. However, achieving these outcomes requires consistent policy support, technological advancements, and investment in renewable infrastructure, which together could drive Mexico's industrial sector toward a more sustainable and competitive future.