Introduction

Mexico’s transportation sector is at a critical juncture, facing the dual challenges of growing energy demand and the need to transition towards low-carbon alternatives. Current trends indicate a heavy reliance on fossil fuels, with gasoline and diesel dominating the energy mix. In 2022, gasoline alone accounted for approximately 66% of transportation energy use, followed by diesel at 28%. This dependency contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions, aligning poorly with global goals to combat climate change.

Under business-as-usual scenarios, Mexico’s transportation demand and emissions are projected to increase, with cargo and passenger demands rising steadily by 2050. Private and public road transport, particularly light vehicles, make up the majority of this demand, leaving sustainable modes such as rail, public transit, and non-motorized options underutilized. Without policy interventions, this trajectory poses severe environmental and health challenges due to sustained high emissions.

However, the projection suggests that with effective net-zero policies, Mexico can transform its energy mix. By 2050, interventions could reduce gasoline and diesel shares, making room for electricity and hydrogen as cleaner options. Shifting towards renewable energy and low-emission fuels presents an opportunity for Mexico to meet its climate goals while addressing urban air quality and enhancing energy security. This transition, however, requires robust policy support, technological advancement, and infrastructure investments.